Valor predictivo de los indicadores de salud

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze some traditional health indicators according to their chronological trend (1960-1973) and their predictive value, comparing the expected values for the period 1974 -1983 with the observed ones. Though all the studied indicators show a decreasing trend, there exist some differences according to the type of indicator. The fact that these differences are present in a short period of time decreases the value of using the previous trend to predictions of future. A study of new health indicators to assess the level of health of the population, that include other socioeconomic factors is proposed.